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ATTENTION: TECH INVESTORS
BREAKING NEWS - MAY 17, 2025

TECH SECTOR SURGE: 90-DAY WINDOW OPENS AS TRADE TRUCE SPARKS RALLY

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Strategic Positioning Before the August 12 Deadline Could Determine Winners and Losers

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Editor's Note: The historic US-China trade truce has created a rare 90-day window for tech investors that closes August 12th.

Nvidia's May 28th earnings report looms as the sector's most consequential catalyst, with potential to trigger significant moves across the entire AI ecosystem. Positioning now, rather than reacting later, could be the difference between capturing or missing the next phase of this recovery rally.

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The technology sector has rebounded significantly following the U.S.-China trade agreement announced on May 12, creating what market observers are calling a strategic opportunity window before the 90-day deadline expires on August 12.

Tech stocks led market gains with the sector jumping 2.25% following the announcement, outpacing the broader S&P 500's 0.72% increase. The Nasdaq Composite surged 1.61%, reflecting the heavy tech weighting in the index.

This market reversal has effectively erased 2025's losses, with the S&P 500 climbing approximately 18% since hitting its low point on April 8—a dramatic turnaround in just over a month.

Countdown to May 28: Nvidia's Critical Earnings Test Looms

With just 11 days remaining until Nvidia's May 28 earnings report, market participants are increasingly focused on what could be the most consequential tech earnings release of the quarter. The high-stakes report comes at a pivotal moment for the entire AI sector:

  • Nvidia's results will provide the first comprehensive look at AI chip demand since the trade tensions escalated and subsequently eased
  • Gross margin trends will be scrutinized for signs of pricing pressure as competition intensifies
  • Forward guidance will be interpreted as a proxy for the entire AI ecosystem's health

"May 28th represents a binary event for tech investors," notes a recent JPMorgan research report. "Positioning ahead of this catalyst rather than reacting to it could be the difference between capturing or missing a potential sector-wide move."

Trading volumes in Nvidia options have surged to record levels, indicating heightened market anticipation. The current implied volatility suggests a potential 8-10% price move following the announcement—significantly higher than the typical 5-6% post-earnings reaction.

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Semiconductor Performance Mixed

Semiconductor stocks are showing particularly strong momentum, though year-to-date performance remains uneven across the sector:

  • Nvidia shares have jumped 4.16% to $135.34, pushing the stock back into positive territory for 2025 with a modest 0.78% gain year-to-date. The company's upcoming earnings report on May 28 is viewed as a crucial indicator for the AI sector.
  • AMD is trading at $117.72, showing strength but still down significantly from its March high of $187.28. The company recently announced a $6 billion share repurchase program.
  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is trading at $194.76, down 25% year-to-date despite strong Q1 2025 results with triple-digit AI-related revenue growth in its chip business.

Beyond chips, enterprise technology stocks like Salesforce have rebounded on the prospect of continued strong corporate IT spending, while cybersecurity firms like CrowdStrike are seeing renewed interest despite the company's announcement of workforce reductions.

Key Considerations for Investors

Several factors suggest a measured approach to this tech rally:

  • The current U.S.-China trade deal is explicitly a 90-day truce rather than a permanent resolution. President Trump has stated that tariffs could go "substantially higher" if a full deal isn't reached during this period.
  • Existing AI chip export restrictions to China remain in place, continuing to affect semiconductor companies with significant Chinese exposure.
  • The U.S. Commerce Department is still conducting a national security investigation into semiconductor imports that could result in new tariffs specifically targeting chips and electronics.
  • Gross margin pressure is affecting even market leaders like Nvidia as competition intensifies in the AI chip space.

Potential Strategies Worth Considering

Based on current market conditions, several approaches may merit consideration:

Focus on supply chain diversification. Companies that have already begun diversifying their manufacturing and supply chains beyond China appear better positioned for potential future trade tensions. Apple shares have gained approximately 6% since the trade announcement despite warning of $900 million in additional tariff-related costs.

Monitor upcoming earnings closely. The upcoming earnings season, particularly Nvidia's report on May 28, will provide crucial insights into how tech companies are navigating the current economic and trade environment.

Balance tech exposure. The current environment may favor a balance between established technology companies with strong cash flows and emerging AI leaders with significant growth potential.

Watch calendar dates. The next 90 days will be critical as negotiations continue. Any signals about the likelihood of a more permanent agreement—or lack thereof—could significantly impact tech stocks.

The technology sector remains at the intersection of innovation and geopolitical tensions. While the initial market response reflected optimism, the temporary nature of the current trade agreement suggests that volatility may continue to characterize tech stocks in the coming months.

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